THE NEXUS BETWEEN CORRUPTION AND RESOURCE THEFT: IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL SECURITY IN RESOURCE-RICH NATIONS

The nexus between crude oil theft, corruption, and national security in Nigeria is complex and multifaceted. Oil theft directly impacts the nation's economy by reducing government revenue, which in turn limits the resources available for critical public services, including security and law enforcement. Corruption, by weakening governance and fostering impunity, compounds these security threats, allowing criminal networks to thrive This study investigates the intricate relationship between crude oil theft, corruption, and national security in Nigeria. The study utilised a longitudinal research design, examining secondary data from 2013 to 2023, including metrics such as oil theft, political corruption, violent events, and fatalities. Data from sources like the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA), and the World Bank's political corruption index were analysed using Poisson regression to assess the effects of oil theft and corruption on national security. Findings revealed that crude oil theft has a statistically significant positive relationship with violent events, while political corruption, represented by the political corruption index, shows a strong negative relationship with security, with an estimate of - 26.475. This could imply that corruption may sometimes act as a stabilising force whereby, in corrupt systems, those in power might suppress violence to maintain order and avoid public attention that could threaten their positions. However, political corruption has a substantial positive effect on fatalities, with an estimate of 19.589. This highlights that as corruption increases, fatalities rise significantly, pointing to the detrimental impact of corruption on state institutions and the rule of law. These findings also suggest that while crude oil theft directly contributes to insecurity, political corruption may reduce overt violence by maintaining fragile stability. Therefore, addressing these issues requires a nuanced approach. Policymakers must recognise that combating corruption and oil theft alone will not be sufficient to ensure national security; instead, strategies should tackle both issues simultaneously, understanding that reducing visible violence does not always eliminate the underlying causes of insecurity.