Understanding Decadal-Scale Dynamics in the Bering Sea: Investigating Trends and Variability in Sea Ice, Winds, and Waves

Abstract Despite the societal and economic importance of the Bering Sea, recent rapid changes in surface ocean conditions are not well documented. We address this gap by characterizing the Bering Sea winter ice–wind–wave climate using satellite observations and reanalysis data. Nine of the last 10 years (2014–23) have experienced anomalously low sea ice extent relative to the 1980–2023 mean. Between 2003 and 2023, gale force wind speeds have become more common and satellite altimeter observations show significant wave height (SWH) has increased ≥6 m, and has increased by 1 m between 2003 and 2023, while 20 days yr −1 exhibit SWH > 9 m. Winters between 2018 and 2023 were the six stormiest since 2003, and the sea ice season decreases by 1–4 days yr −1 . Should ice loss in the Bering Sea continue to decline, we hypothesize that the frequency of extreme waves over the Bering Sea shelf would increase, severely impacting coastal communities. In September 2022, extratropical cyclone Merbok caused unprecedented SWH (>15 m) over the shelf which were uncharacteristic for the season, and caused widespread coastal inundation and property damage. Such anomalous wave conditions exemplify the emerging threat storms pose in a future where sea ice is absent more frequently in winter, when severe storms are most common. Satellite altimeters have improved the observation of surface ocean conditions in the Bering Sea during the most intense storms, and we demonstrate that a suite of five or more altimeters is required to capture regional events adequately. Significance Statement Although the Bering Sea region has recently endured rapid sea ice loss and the decline of several species important for subsistence and commercial fishing, it has relatively few resources to monitor and mitigate changing climatic conditions. In this article, we show that extreme wind and wave conditions in the Bering Sea have strongly increased in recent years, as sea ice has declined. This points to a need for reliable and continued monitoring, and with only two wave buoys providing year-round observations, an adequate constellation of ocean remote sensing instruments is required to capture extreme ocean–ice–atmosphere events in an isolated and challenging environment.