Evaluation of Machine Learning Models for Predicting the Hot Deformation Flow Stress of Sintered Al–Zn–Mg Alloy

Abstract In predicting flow stress, machine learning (ML) offers significant advantages by leveraging data-driven approaches, enhancing material design, and accurately forecasting material performance. Thus, the present study employs various supervised ML models, including linear regression (Lasso and Ridge), support vector regression (SVR), ensemble methods (random forest (RF), gradient boosting (GB), extreme gradient boosting (XGB)), and neural networks (artificial neural network (ANN), multilayer perceptron (MLP)), to predict flow stress in the hot deformation of an Al–Zn–Mg alloy. The ML methodology involves sequential steps from data extraction to cross-validation and hyperparameter tuning, which is conducted using the hyperopt library. Model performance is assessed using average absolute relative error (AARE), root-mean-squared error (RMSE), and mean squared error (MSE). The results show that ensemble methods (RF, GB, XGB) and neural networks outperform traditional regression methods, demonstrating superior predictive accuracy. Visualization using half-violin plots reveals the models' error ranges, with XGB consistently exhibiting the best performance. SVR, RF, GB, XGB, ANN, and MLP showed better performance than the Arrhenius model in the context of AARE and MSE metrics. Interestingly, SVR had a somewhat higher AARE of 1.89% and an MSE of 0.251 MPa2, while XGB had the lowest AARE of 0.2% and the lowest MSE of 0.011 MPa2. When ML models were evaluated using the skill score in relation to the Arrhenius model, XGB scored higher than the support vector machine (SVM) at 0.714, with a score of 0.986. In contrast, Lasso and Ridge exhibited negative scores of −0.847 and −0.456, respectively.