Predicting lake chlorophyll from stream phosphorus concentrations

Excess nutrient loads from streams drive primary production in downstream lakes, and managing these loads is key to achieving desired conditions in lakes. However, quantifying nutrient loads requires intensive sampling of both nutrient concentrations and streamflow. Total phosphorus measurements collected during routine stream monitoring are broadly available, but these data are thought to provide little information on annual nutrient loads because they are typically collected during low, baseflow conditions. Here, we demonstrate that these routine phosphorus measurements are correlated with annual nutrient loads. We also show that the average of these routine measurements of stream phosphorus within a watershed predict the average lake chlorophyll concentration in that same watershed. These relationships can then be used to set targets for stream phosphorus concentrations to achieve desired conditions in lakes.