Spatial drivers of logistics development in the Netherlands

Empirical studies of logistics location choice have largely focused on logistics as a single sector. This research attempts to address this research gap by analysing the heterogeneity in locational preferences of logistics across facility types and sizes. We estimate a multinomial logistic regression model to study the relative impact of various spatial drivers on logistics development in the Netherlands. We explicitly assess the role of a government policy aimed at stimulating logistics growth. We find that factors such as highway and rail accessibility, proximity to consumers and urban areas, land availability, and proximity to other logistics firms have a positive effect across all logistics categories while restrictive zoning measures have a negative effect. On the contrary, the effects of factors such as access to seaports and freight terminals, urban attractiveness, and land price are more heterogeneous and vary with the function and size of logistics. Finally, our analysis also reveals positive effects of the logistics growth stimulating spatial policy. Using our estimated parameters, we also map the predicted probabilities to identify potential future locations for logistics development.