Health-related quality of life and survival of older adults in Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil: A retrospective analysis from 2008 to 2018

As the average life expectancy continues to rise, the prevalence of multimorbidity is also expected to increase, potentially leading to outcomes such as functional decline, a higher risk of premature death, and adverse effects on overall health and well-being. This study aimed to estimate the survival rates of older adults with varying levels of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and to assess the association between the domains and components of the 36-item Short Form Health Survey and all-cause mortality over a 10-year period in Brazil. We conducted a retrospective longitudinal study using baseline data from 1,520 elders (aged 60 years and older) who participated in the Health Care Survey of the Municipality of Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil (ISACamp 2008/2009). A linkage was established between the ISACamp databases and the Mortality Information System. An active search was performed for individuals whose data could not be paired to confirm the death status. Survival functions were calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method, while hazard ratios (with 95% confidence intervals) were determined using Cox regression analysis. All HRQoL domains showed proportional hazards and statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) between survival curves, except for the bodily pain domain. In the multivariate analysis, lower scores in physical functioning and role-physical were associated with a 74% and 42% increased risk of death, respectively. In addition, impairments in role-emotional, mental health, and general health heightened the risk of mortality by approximately 36%. Notably, the lowest score in the physical component emerged as a significant predictor of mortality, increasing the probability of death by 47%, while the mental component showed no significant association. Our findings provide compelling evidence of the predictive capacity of HRQoL in evaluating mortality risk among older people in low- and middle-income countries.