Role of the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasian-like pattern on the near future warming rate of East Asian surface temperature

Abstract Internal climate variability (ICV) plays an important role in either accelerating or slowing down the rate of surface temperature warming in East Asia in the near future. To examine the influence of ICV on East Asian surface temperature in the near future, we mainly analyzed the data sets obtained from Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble model simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. It is found that the ICV associated with the so-called Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasian (WACE)-like pattern contributes to the near-future warming rate of East Asian surface temperature. Similar results are also obtained from large ensemble model simulations participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5–8.5 scenario. This implies that the near-term warming rate in East Asia could vary depending on how the climate model simulates the WACE-like pattern, indicating that the ability to accurately simulate ICV in climate models is crucial for future climate mitigation and adaptation policies.