Navigating the pathway from collaborative governance to impacts under uncertainty: A theory of change for watershed visions

Collaborative governance is considered effective in environmental problem solving. However, it is not always successful in delivering benefits. In Finland, collaborative ‘watershed visions’ are gaining popularity as a way to advance holistic water management. Watershed visions bring the public, private, and civil society actors across sectors together to agree on a desired future for a river basin and to plan steps for achieving it. The capability of watershed visions to lead to positive environmental impacts is, however, highly uncertain. We applied a Theory of Change approach to conceptualize an outcome-oriented impact pathway for the watershed visions to enhance the understanding of their possibilities to achieve their desired long-term impacts. Using empirical material, we structured a watershed vision process into an impact pathway of nine phases necessary for achieving the desired future. From each phase, we identified assumptions suggesting why and under what conditions the impact pathway successfully works, risks to its realization, and key uncertainties inherent to the risks. Focusing on the uncertainties, we developed a tool for ex-ante, interim, and ex-post evaluation of the watershed visions. We suggest that a longitudinal Theory of Change is a useful tool for addressing change and managing uncertainty in any collaborative process with long-term aims, and that applying this tool can increase the success of collaborative governance. • Collaborative future visioning can enhance river basin management but involves uncertainty. • Theory of Change enables to identify the phases necessary for achieving the desired future, and the related uncertainties. • Uncertainty-based matrix for ex-ante, interim and ex-post evaluation of vision processes was compiled. • Using the matrix to decrease uncertainties can increase the success of visioning. • Theory of change is useful for achieving long-term environmental goals.