Prediction of Land Cover Change in Pangkah Subdistrict, Tegal Regency, Indonesia Using Cellular Automata-Markov

Abstract Pangkah Subdistrict, strategically located next to Tegal Regency’s capital, is experiencing steady population growth. The growing population and rising demand for agricultural products create competition for land use. By integrating remote sensing with geographic information systems (GIS), it becomes possible to evaluate land-cover changes over time, forming a foundation for forecasting future land use in Tegal Regency. This study examines land-cover changes in Pangkah Subdistrict for the years 2007, 2015, and 2023, while also predicting land-cover for 2045 using the Cellular Automata-Markov method. The findings indicate a continuous increase in built-up land due to population growth, while agricultural land decreases each year. The modeling results will inform evaluations of spatial planning in Pangkah Subdistrict.