Dynamics of Exposure and Sensitivity of Agricultural Sector to Climate Change in Yogyakarta Special Region as Observed by Geospatial Datasets

Abstract The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity is evident. Higher temperatures, more extreme rainfall, and shorter growing seasons are leading to decreased agricultural yields. To address this, it is crucial to map the exposure and sensitivity of the agricultural sector to climate change in the Yogyakarta Special Region. This is especially important given the region’s heavy reliance on agriculture, particularly in Sleman, Bantul, Kulon Progo, and Gunungkidul Regencies. Mapping these factors aligns with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Exposure and sensitivity are evaluated using biophysical indicators over three periods: 2020, 2030, and 2050, under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, 4.5 and 8.5. The findings reveal three levels of exposure and sensitivity in the region: low, moderate, and high. Exposure values are projected to rise under both RCP scenarios across the studied periods. In Gunungkidul, Saptosari, Purwosari, Tanjungsari, and Panggang consistently exhibit high exposure levels, while Pakem and Cangkringan in Sleman maintain low exposure levels. Gedangsari and Rongkop in Gunungkidul show highest sensitivity, whereas Temon in Kulon Progo and Pakem in Sleman show lowest sensitivity. Therefore, it is important to develop plans to reduce these impacts.