Using polymerase chain reaction cycle threshold (PCR Ct) values for predicting and managing cholera outbreaks: potential, challenges, and future directions

Abstract Background Cholera continues to be a major public health threat, especially in regions with poor sanitation and limited access to clean water. Accurate prediction and management of cholera outbreaks are essential to reduce mortality and morbidity. This review focuses on the potential of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) cycle threshold (Ct) values as an innovative tool for early detection and control of cholera outbreaks, specifically highlighting its utility in predicting outbreaks and guiding public health responses. Main body of abstract PCR Ct values offer a significant advantage in the early detection of Vibrio cholerae , the pathogen responsible for cholera, in both clinical and environmental samples. By providing quantitative data on bacterial load, lower Ct values indicate a higher concentration of the pathogen, signaling the potential for increased disease transmission. These values allow for more precise, real-time monitoring of cholera outbreaks and aid in targeting intervention strategies such as water sanitation improvements, vaccination campaigns, and antibiotic treatments. Moreover, the application of Ct values in environmental surveillance, particularly in monitoring water sources, offers a proactive approach to prevent the spread of cholera by identifying contamination risks before human cases arise. However, the implementation of PCR in low-resource settings faces significant challenges, including high costs, the need for advanced laboratory infrastructure, and a lack of technical expertise. Addressing these barriers through cost-effective innovations and capacity building initiatives is crucial for optimizing the use of PCR Ct values in cholera management. Conclusion PCR Ct values hold great promise for improving cholera outbreak prediction and control. Despite challenges in adopting this technology in resource-limited settings, the integration of Ct value monitoring into public health frameworks can enhance early detection efforts and contribute to more effective cholera management strategies.