Climate Change Could Reduce the Geographic Distribution of the Natterjack Toad in Semi-Arid Regions: A 34-Year Study in Central Spain

Amphibians are globally threatened due to pollution, infection diseases, invasive species, habitat loss and climate change. Rising temperatures and shifts in precipitation regimes can have a major impact on the persistence of amphibian populations, especially in semi-arid regions. In this study, we used a long term time series spanning 34 years in central Spain to evaluate the effect of three climatic variables on the reproductive success of the natterjack toad (Epidalea calamita) in temporary ponds. Our results showed that reproductive success was only possible for seven years (20.6%). We found that reproductive success is positively related to the accumulated spring precipitation, while negatively related to mean spring temperature and spring evaporation. This study highlights the importance of conserving and restoring amphibian breeding habitats in order to minimize the potential impacts of climate change and habitat loss.