The impact of wildfire smoke exposure on excess mortality and later-life socioeconomic outcomes: the Great Fire of 1910

Abstract The Great Fire of 1910 in the northwestern United States burnt more than 1.2 million hectares in just two days and stands as one of the largest wildfires ever recorded. While it is known for having led to the introduction of a rigorous fire suppression regime that lasted for much of the twentieth century, it also generated a considerable amount of smoke far beyond the burnt areas that is likely to have impacted the health of those exposed. This paper examines the short- and long-term impact of this fire-sourced smoke pollution on children, combining historical data with smoke emission and dispersion modelling. The econometric results indicate a 119% increase in excess mortality during the week of the fire and a decrease of 4–14% in later-life socioeconomic status scores 20 and 30 years after the event. This research offers novel insights into wildfire smoke repercussions on health and long-run human capital formation in a setting where avoidance behaviour was minimal.