Integrating Hurricane Ian-induced morphology change and GIS-based channelization modeling for barrier island vulnerability

Beaches are vital for storm protection to coastal communities. The nearshore environment, subaerial beach, and dune system provide a first line of defense against hurricane impacts. Hurricane Ian made landfall in Lee County in 2022 and caused devastating damage to coastal communities, estimated at more than $112 billion U.S.. This study aims to create an integrated approach to analyze Hurricane Ian’s impacts on Estero Island, in Lee County, Florida, by examining changes in elevation, shore- line morphology, beach volume, and modeled channelization linked with estimated property damage to the households’ demographic and socio-economic characteristics. The modeled channelization resulting from receding flood waters and ebb surge is compared to impacts on the barrier island’s morphology and estimated damages. The study found that Estero Island sustained volume loss to the subaerial beach after Hurricane Ian with models indicating channelization of water across the barrier island and a greater number of buildings with increased damages were associated within 30 m of the modeled channels. Census data indicated that over 50% of the population on the island is 65 years of age and older, with the majority of households in income brackets below $100K, and approximately 17% living in poverty. The findings from this study present the importance of an integrated approach for extreme events for vulnerable populations, such as those on Estero Island, with a particular emphasis on addressing the needs of elderly residents, lower-income households, and structures built near modeled channels for future management efforts.