Government Policy Influence on Land Use and Land Cover Changes: A 30-Year Analysis

This study investigated land use and land cover (LULC) patterns and changes in the Bandon Bay area of Thailand from 1991 to 2021 using satellite imagery, the first comprehensive effort to assess historical LULC trends over the past 30 years and forecast future LULC scenarios using the CA-Markov model for 2031, 2041, and 2051. Results showed the predominant LULC during 1991-2001 was the abandoned paddy fields, and during 2006-2021 was the oil palm plantations. During 1991-2001, the abandoned paddy fields changed significantly, with a net gain of 59.28 km2. From 2001-2011 and 2011-2021, the oil palm plantations experienced the most crucial change, with a net gain of 292.94 km2 and 70.06 km2. In 2031, 2041, and 2051, the LULC was predicted to be oil palms, shrimp farms, mangroves, and urban and built-up lands. The LULC changes were consistent with the government policies implemented and indicated government policy as a driving force in LULC dynamics on Bandon Bay area forestry, aquaculture, and agriculture, particularly on oil palm cultivation. Government management and regulation on land use is crucial for reducing the expansion of agricultural areas, especially oil palm plantations and aquaculture areas, to mitigate negative impacts on the Bandon Bay ecosystem. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2024-08-05-06 Full Text: PDF