Predictive models for the implementation of targeted reproductive management in multiparous cows on automatic milking systems

Targeted reproductive management (TRM) aims to improve the fertility efficiency of the dairy herd by applying group-level management strategies based on expected reproductive performance. Key to the utility of TRM is the accuracy with which an animal's reproductive performance can be predicted. Automatic milking systems (AMS) allow for the collection of data relating to milk quantity, quality, and robot visit behavior throughout the transition period. In addition to this, auxiliary data sources, such as rumination and activity monitors, as well as historical cow-level data, are often readily available. The utility of this data for the prediction of fertility has not been previously explored. The first objective of this study was to assess the accuracy with which the likelihood of expression of estrus between 22 and 65 DIM and conception to first insemination between 22 and 80 DIM could be predicted using data collected by AMS from 1 to 21 DIM. Our second objective was to assess the change in model performance following the addition of 2 auxiliary data sources. Using data derived solely from the AMS (RBT dataset) a binary random forest classification model was constructed for both outcomes of interest. The performance of these models was compared with models constructed using AMS data in conjunction with 2 auxiliary sources (RBT+ dataset). Expression of estrus was classified with an area under the receiver operator curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.6 and 0.65, conception to first insemination with an AUC-ROC of 0.56 and 0.62 for the RBT and RBT+ datasets, respectively. No statistically significant improvement in classification accuracy was achieved by the addition of auxiliary data sources. This is the first study to report the utility of data collected by AMS for the prediction of reproductive performance. Though the performance described is comparable with previously reported models, their utility for the implementation of TRM is limited by poor classification accuracy within key subgroups. Of note within this study is the failure of the addition of auxiliary data sources to increase the accuracy of prediction over models built using AMS data alone. We discuss the advantages and limitations the integration of additional data sources imposes on model training and deployment and suggest alternative methods to improve performance while preserving model parsimony.