Statistical Analysis of Atmospheric Delay Gradient and Rainfall Prediction in a Tropical Region

In recent years, precipitable water vapor has emerged as a key atmospheric parameter in weather prediction research. However, relying on only one parameter does not always accurately predict rainfall, as other atmospheric parameters also contribute to initiating rain events. In our previous study, we explored a methodology for rainfall forecasting based on the atmospheric delay gradient at an individual station in the tropical region. Commonly referred to as the atmospheric gradient, it accounts for the delay in GNSS signals due to changes in horizontal refractivity while propagating through the troposphere to the ground station. This paper discusses the spatial and temporal correlation of the gradient with precipitation occurring over a region. We have investigated different features, such as gradient magnitude, gradient convergence, and the flux of the atmospheric gradient, to propose potential nowcasting criteria for precipitation in the tropical climatic zone. The atmospheric gradient in the surrounding region orients toward the area of precipitation as the rain event approaches. This gradient gradually alters its orientation and converges toward the region of rainfall at the time of precipitation, introducing the concept of gradient convergence. This phenomenon results in an inward gradient flux at the time of the downpour, which presents a potential parameter for rainfall prediction over an area. We also proposed investigating area sizes of 4° × 4° or 8° × 8°, depending on the gradient feature, to establish a forecasting methodology for rainfall. The weather front in the tropical region begins to initiate 12 h before the actual time of occurrence and advances toward the area where it will have an impact from a more distant location. This article presents a detailed investigation of various features of the atmospheric gradient and its potential to nowcast rainfall for a region, as well as proposes the lead time for long-term weather predictions. Furthermore, a deep neural network has been employed to predict rainfall events for the next 6 h over an area in the tropical region.