Scenario-Based Assessment of Implementing Large-Capacity LNG Projects in Russian Arctic Zone

This article presents the results of analyzing the maritime transportation of liquefied natural gas from the Yamal LNG project in 2018–2023 and identifies the main transportation patterns and endpoints of LNG transportation in an easterly and westerly direction, depending on the season. The carrying capacity of LNG tankers is calculated. An integral estimation of the production output of the Arctic LNG-2 project in development is made as well as of the Yamal LNG project run since 2017. The demand of the Arctic LNG projects for tank vessels is determined, considering the commissioning of new maritime transshipment terminals on eastward and westward routes. Possibilities for developing the logistics of large-capacity Arctic LNG projects are considered. Taking account of the plans to launch new stages in the Arctic LNG-2 project, seasonal navigation patterns in the NSR, average tankerload volumes, duration of eastward and westward round voyages, number of LNG tanker vessels operated as part of the Yamal LNG project, and the plan to build new LNG carriers for the Arctic LNG-2 project, seven scenarios of developing the LNG logistics in the Arctic have been proposed. It is shown that, for several scenarios considered, there is a risk that the entire LNG volume produced by the two large Arctic projects might not be exported due to an insufficient number of vessels.