FORECASTING FIRE RISK VALUES USING MACHINE LEARNING AND TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

The probability of occurrence of emergencies and their consequences can be minimized by predicting events that contribute to the emergence of such a situation. An optimal and useful tool for such prediction and forecasting can be modeling, which can be carried out on the basis of information technology using computer programs.The methods of modeling and forecasting emergencies related to fires are the same as for other emergencies, but there are some specifics. The forecast of emergencies related to fires is aimed at three main stages: 1. forecasting the probability of occurrence with the determination of the place of the highest probability of fire occurrence, time and factors contributing to it; 2. forecasting the development of the situation and the spread of the fire (direction, speed) when it occurs, the process itself; 3. forecasting the consequences of a fire at a specific facility.The forecast is made based on the analysis of all possible unfavorable factors, their fields of action, features of the facility, its fire hazard and other data.The use of machine learning methods and time series analysis for forecasting fire risk values is substantiated. The possibility of using statistical methods of mathematical modeling of fire occurrence as the basis of the machine learning model is noted. This approach enables the machine learning model to process and analyze a large amount of statistical information for specific time periods and issue forecasts.