Airspace Safety Assessment and Risk Estimation based on the Fuzzy Petri Net Model with Multi-Risk Factor Analysis

In this paper an airspace safety assessment and risk estimation method based on the fuzzy Petri net (FPN) model is presented by analyzing 44 related multi-risk factors. In the proposed method, two kinds of real air accident data from 2010 until the present are used to statistically deduce the causes of the corresponding air accidents, namely accidents between manned aircraft, as well as the accidents between manned and unmanned aircraft. All of the data needed are drawn from the authoritative aviation safety network (ASN). These 44 related multi-risk factors are derived from four main aspects that include man, machine, medium, and management. From this, a multi-level evaluation index system for airspace safety is built. Furthermore, the determination of the risk index is based on the official reports which could make the proposed method more objective and accurate. Correspondingly, the airspace safety assessment and risk estimation model based on FPN can be generated by defining multi-risk factors and calculating the weight coefficients. To overcome the deficiency of many network nodes, a risk threshold is introduced to simplify the risk estimation model. The Zhuhai terminal area is taken as an example to assess and estimate its safety. The effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method are also verified. Results indicate that management is a key factor in airspace safety, with a lack of training being a significant cause of a 126.59% rise in air risk.