Considering Daily Maintenance Schedule Under Uncertainty in Hydro-Thermal Operation Planning for Reserve Margin Calculation

This paper presents a proposal to analyze the impact of considering a programmed power plants maintenance schedule at operation planning, instead of applying historical average unavailability, in order to optimize the reserve margin. For that purpose, a Mixed Integer Programming model is implemented to yield a schedule that targets system reliability by maximizing the Conditional Value at Risk of the days with worst power reserve margin. To incorporate uncertainties inherent to the actual maintenance realization, this study includes a probabilistic approach to represent delays on the starting date and duration of the programmed maintenance.