How to manage regime shifts: insights from a dryland social–ecological system

Effective water resource management in the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin, a critical region in the Middle East, requires understanding system dynamics and anticipating regime shifts. This study uses system dynamics to model water consumption changes in the basin, analysing various scenarios (10% to 30% increase/decrease) in agricultural, urban, and industrial sectors. Results show that increased consumption harms water systems, while reductions, especially a 30% decrease, stabilize systems and improve water quality. Upstream reductions benefit downstream resources, highlighting the importance of integrated management. Proactive strategies can mitigate adverse impacts, ensuring a sustainable water future for the region’s inhabitants.