Prediction of the Mean Time to Failures of a Complex System Using the Monte Carlo Simulation Method

This paper presents a Monte Carlo-based algorithm for predicting the Mean Time to Failure (MTTF) of complex structures, specifically a “Bridge-type network” with five elements exhibiting various failure distributions. The proposed algorithm involves generating element lifetimes through the inverse of their failure distribution functions, providing a robust approach to evaluating MTTF for systems beyond traditional series or parallel configurations. The approach was implemented in MATLAB, and the software underwent extensive testing across different scenarios, including both exponential and Weibull distributions. The results demonstrated the method’s accuracy and its capability to handle diverse failure distributions with minimal error. This tool offers reliability engineers a versatile solution for predicting and improving the reliability of complex systems. In summary, the proposed method and software significantly advance the reliability assessment of intricate structures and offer a solid foundation for further research and practical applications in the field of reliability engineering.