Trading places: opposite colonization and extinction responses of the hermit warbler and western bluebird to the 2021 Dixie Fire

Forty years of increasing fire size and severity in California’s Sierra Nevada were embodied by the 2021 Dixie Fire, which burned 389,837 ha between July and October, making it one of the largest, most destructive fires in California’s history. Historical fire regimes burned substantial areas annually, but primarily at low and moderate severities. Studies of the implications of fires like the Dixie Fire, which burn largely at higher severities, have focused on habitat change in the burned area; much less is known about potential edge effects. The hermit warbler (Setophaga occidentalis) and western bluebird (Sialia mexicana) have previously been characterized as species with dramatic, opposing post-wildfire responses: hermit warblers display a strongly negative response to fires while western bluebirds display a strong positive response. We conducted passive acoustic monitoring pre- and post-Dixie Fire inside and outside the burned area and analyzed the audio with the machine learning animal identification tool BirdNET. We then used a multi-season occupancy modeling framework to characterize both species’ site extinction and site colonization responses as a function of fire and habitat variables. We found no influence of edge effects, though this may have been a function of the low density of our recorders relative to the home range of these species. We did, however, observe contrasting relationships between the species. Hermit warbler site extinction was elevated in burned areas, particularly those burned at higher severities, while site colonization in unburned habitat was positively associated with canopy cover. Western bluebirds displayed the exact opposite pattern (elevated colonization in areas of high-severity fire, elevated extinction in unburned areas with high canopy cover). These results suggest contrasting trajectories for fire-influenced bird species under contemporary fire regimes and could guide hypothesis generation for broader studies of biodiversity responses to fire in this ecosystem.