Optimizing data-driven arctic marine forecasting: a comparative analysis of MariNet, FourCastNet, and PhyDNet

Introduction Marine forecasts play a crucial role in ensuring safe navigation, efficient offshore operations, coastal management, and research, particularly in regions with challenging conditions like the Arctic Ocean. These forecasts necessitate precise predictions of ocean currents, wind-driven waves, and various other oceanic parameters. Although physics-based numerical models are highly accurate, they come with significant computational requirements. Therefore, data-driven approaches, which are less computationally intensive, may present a more effective solution for predicting sea conditions. Methods This study introduces a detailed analysis and comparison of three data-driven models: the newly developed convLSTM-based MariNet, FourCastNet, and PhydNet, a physics-informed model designed for video prediction. Through the utilization of metrics such as RMSE, Bias, and Correlation, we illustrate the areas in which our model outperforms well-known prediction models. Results Our model demonstrates enhanced accuracy in forecasting ocean dynamics when compared to FourCastNet and PhyDNet. Additionally, our findings reveal that our model demands significantly less training data and computational resources, ultimately resulting in lower carbon emissions. Discussion These findings indicate the potential for further exploration of data-driven models as a supplement to physics-based models in operational marine forecasting, as they have the capability to improve prediction accuracy and efficiency, thereby facilitating more responsive and cost-effective forecasting systems.