Opening the Black Box of Police Operations and Crime During the COVID-19 Pandemic

This paper documents how a large suburban police department in the United States responded to the COVID-19 pandemic and assesses whether their responses had discernible impacts on crime and disorder. We used time series forecasting and regression approaches with more than six years of data to examine whether calls for police service rose or fell significantly during the pandemic’s first year in response to shifts in police activity (including remote responses to calls, reductions in proactive and community policing, and other shifts in patrol and investigative work) and other important events (like government lockdowns and social protests). Call volumes for violent, property, and disorder incidents generally remained within or below normal pre-COVID ranges during the pandemic’s first year, but violence and disorder calls were significantly higher than expected when adjusted for reduced levels of public activity during this time. However, these patterns were not clearly related to reductions in proactive police work or other operational changes by the police during the pandemic. This study provides a more detailed and explicit assessment of policing during the COVID-19 pandemic than has most prior research, and it highlights the need for deeper localized studies of criminal justice policies and operations during COVID-19 to guide practitioners and policymakers in responding to future public health crises.