Vanishing Paddies: Tracing the Transformation of Rice Cultivation in Kerala, India

The study of rice cultivation in Kerala from 1957-58 to 2022-23 reveals a significant decline in the area under cultivation, dropping from 7.66 lakh ha to 1.91 lakh ha, driven by factors such as land conversion for non-agricultural purposes, labour shortages, and a shift to more profitable crops like rubber and coconut. Despite a notable increase in productivity from 1,188 kg/ha to 3,108 kg/ha, these gains were insufficient to offset the decline in area, leading to an overall reduction in production. Government interventions, including the Kerala Conservation of Paddy Land and Wetland Act of 2008, slowed the decline, but the trend persisted. The data for this study was collected from various government publications of the Department of Economics and Statistics, Government of Kerala. The analysis employed several statistical tools, including structural break analysis, compound annual growth rates, the Cuddy-Della Valle instability index, and decomposition analysis, to examine the trends, stability, and factors affecting rice cultivation in Kerala. A district-wise analysis revealed notable regional disparities, with Ernakulam, Thrissur, and Palakkad experiencing the most significant declines in terms of the loss in total area under rice cultivation. Period-wise, the most severe reduction occurred during Period III (1996-97 to 2006-07), while Period IV (2007-08 to 2022-23) saw a more moderate decline due to policy efforts. Moving forward, policies need to focus on better land-use management, protection of paddy fields and wetlands, and economic incentives to sustain rice farming in Kerala.