An integrated quantitative systems pharmacology virtual population approach for calibration with oncology efficacy endpoints

In drug development, quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) models are becoming an increasingly important mathematical tool for understanding response variability and for generating predictions to inform development decisions. Virtual populations are essential for sampling uncertainty and potential variability in QSP model predictions, but many clinical efficacy endpoints can be difficult to capture with QSP models that typically rely on mechanistic biomarkers. In oncology, challenges are particularly significant when connecting tumor size with time-to-event endpoints like progression-free survival while also accounting for censoring due to consent withdrawal, loss in follow-up, or safety criteria. Here, we expand on our prior work and propose an extended virtual population selection algorithm that can jointly match tumor burden dynamics and progression-free survival times in the presence of censoring. We illustrate the core components of our algorithm through simulation and calibration of a signaling pathway model that was fitted to clinical data for a small molecule targeted inhibitor. This methodology provides an approach that can be tailored to other virtual population simulations aiming to match survival endpoints for solid-tumor clinical datasets.