The Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Vegetation Cover and Its Response to the Grain for Green Project in the Loess Plateau of China

The Grain for Green Project (GGP) is a major national initiative aimed at ecological improvement and vegetation restoration in China, achieving substantial ecological and socio-economic benefits. Nevertheless, research on vegetation cover trends and the long-term restoration efficacy of the GGP in the Loess Plateau remains limited. This study examines the temporal–spatial evolution and sustainability of vegetation cover in this region, using NDVI data from Landsat (2000–2022) with medium-high spatial resolution. The analytical methods involve Sen’s slope, Mann–Kendall non-parametric test, and Hurst exponent to assess trends and forecast sustainability. The findings reveal that between 2000 and 2022, vegetation coverage in the Loess Plateau increased by an average of 0.86% per year (p < 0.01), marked by high vegetation cover expansion (173 × 103 km2, 26.49%) and low vegetation cover reduction (149 × 103 km2, 22.83%). The spatial pattern exhibited a northwest-to-southeast gradient, with a transition from low to high coverage levels, reflecting a persistent increase in high vegetation cover and decrease in low vegetation cover. Approximately 93% of the vegetation cover in the Loess Plateau showed significant improvement, while 5% (approximately 31 × 103 km2) displayed a degradation trend, mainly in the urbanized and Yellow River Basin regions. Projections suggest that 90% of vegetation cover will continue to improve. In GGP-targeted areas, high and medium-high levels of vegetation cover increased significantly at rates of 0.456 ×103 km2/year and 0.304 × 103 km2/year, respectively, with approximately 75% of vegetation cover levels exhibiting positive trends. This study reveals the effectiveness of the GGP in promoting vegetation restoration in the Loess Plateau, offering valuable insights for vegetation recovery research and policy implementation in other ecologically fragile regions.