Study on the Population Carrying Scale of Arable Land in Southern Xinjiang, China

Research on the carrying capacity of land resources and their outputs to population size will be able to better serve the ecological governance of food security. This paper analyzes the population carrying capacity level of southern Xinjiang by using the population carrying capacity model of land resources, and ANOVA analyzes the significance difference between the newly added arable land and the original arable land. At the same time, the demand of cultivated land development is discussed. The results showed that the sown area of grain crops in all the prefectures showed an overall increase from 2009 to 2019. The population carrying scale is more optimistic under subsistence and well-off conditions. From 2009 to 2019, cropland in Aksu region increased the most, followed by Kashgar region, with both regions exceeding 300,000 ha. ANOVA results show that the new arable land is comprehensively lower than the original arable land in terms of quality grade and agricultural output, and salinization and desertification are more serious than on the original arable land. At the same time, the subsistence type requires the least amount of arable land development while the affluent type requires the most. Therefore, we should adapt to local conditions and develop modern agriculture scientifically and reasonably.