Retrospective assessment of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions from stationary sources in Belarus

Algorithms for extrapolating series of statistical data and filling data gaps have been developed. For the first time scientifically valid estimates of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions from major stationary emission sources in Belarus have been obtained for the period from 1950 to 2020. Scientifically valid estimates of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions from major stationary sources over this period in Belarus were obtained for the first time. It was found that sulfur dioxide emissions continuously increased from 1950 to 1980 and grew almost 39 times during this period (from 22.3 to 862.4 thousand tons) attributed to increased combustion of coal, fuel oil and oil refining development. Subsequently, there was a decade of moderate emission reduction on average by 2.9 % per year. Started in 1991, there was a period of a rapid emission reduction (on average by 19.4 % per year) until reaching 80.7 thousand tons in 2000. In the subsequent period, emissions were mainly characterized by a slow decrease to an average level of 45–55 thousand tons per year. Nitrogen oxide emissions showed a rapid growth in the first three decades of the analyzed period (from 13.5 thousand tons in 1950 to 134.5 thousand tons in 1979), which is connected with an overall increase in fuel consumption. In the 1980s, there was a slow decrease up to 112.2 thousand tons in 1991, followed by more intensive reductions in the following years. In 2000, the lowest level of nitrogen oxide emissions since the mid-1960s was observed – 53.1 thousand tons. Subsequent periods were mainly marked by fluctuations in nitrogen oxide emission levels. The obtained results are significantly more accurate than the existing estimates of historical emissions within the Comprehensive Emissions Data System (CEDS).