Low-Carbon Territorial Spatial Detailed Planning in the Context of Climate Change: A Case Study of the Wenzhou Garden Expo Park Area, China

In the context of global climate change, promoting the low-carbon transformation of cities has become an important strategy to cope with environmental challenges. This paper takes Wenzhou Garden Expo Park area as the research object, combines its practical experience as a pilot of a national low-carbon city, and discusses how to effectively control carbon emission in the spatial planning of national territory. The study systematically evaluated the impact of different land use types and development intensities on carbon emissions, as well as the relationship between daytime temperature and carbon emissions, by constructing a carbon emission measurement model and a random forest regression model. This evaluation was based on an analysis of remote sensing data and land use changes from 2000 to 2023. The results show that between 2000 and 2023, the carbon emission from building land in the Garden Expo Park area will increase by about 70%, while the carbon emission can be reduced by more than 25% through rational land use layout and development intensity control. At the same time, the expansion of green space and forest land increases the carbon sink capacity by about 16.7%. With rising temperatures, carbon emissions exhibit a significant upward trend. This study suggests that specific optimization strategies for low-carbon planning, along with an indicator system—particularly through increasing the allocation of green spaces such as arboreal forests and parks—can significantly improve regional carbon balance. This study may provide a reference for other rapidly urbanizing regions to balance economic development and carbon emissions.