The potential distribution of tree heath (<i>Erica arborea</i> L.) in Tigrai

Tree heath (<i>Erica arborea</i> L.) is a rare and endangered native tree species that is facing an incessant population decline due to climatic and anthropogenic factors. The objective of this study was to analyse the impacts of future climate change on the potential distribution of the species in the alpine areas of Tigrai (Ethiopia). A species distribution modelling using Maxent was employed to predict the potentially suitable habitat for the species under two future climatic scenarios. The model was constructed using 58 sets of presence data collected from five main forest areas of the region and 11 environmental predictors. The results revealed that altitude, precipitation in the warmest quarter, distance from the sea, aspect, precipitation in the driest quarter, and precipitation in the wettest quarter were the main factors influencing the distribution of <i>E. arborea</i>. The distribution of <i>E. arborea</i> was highly associated with cold temperature (high elevation) and rainfall. <i>E. arborea</i> is sensitive to temperature fluctuations (bio7). The current suitable habitats of <i>E. arborea</i> were restricted within 2,097 km². The highly suitable habitats for future distribution were the Irob, Atsibi, Emba Alaje, Endamokhoni, Ofla, and the Tsegede highlands of Tigrai. Under RCP8.5 in 2070, the suitable habitat range of <i>Erica</i> will shrink by 54%. Therefore, <i>in situ</i> and <i>ex situ</i> conservation interventions should be introduced to save the rare species in the Tigrai highlands.