Predictors of specialty choice of graduates from the medical course of the Federal University of Santa Catarina: cross-sectional study

Background. Various factors influence specialty choice among medical students. Objectives: To identify key predictors of specialty choice among graduates. Methods. A 33-item survey was administered to a stratified sample of medical graduates from 2000 to 2021. The survey assessed factors influencing specialty choice and satisfaction, engagement, and fulfillment levels. Multinomial logistic regression was used to determine predictors of choosing surgical or supporting specialties over clinical ones. Results. Data from 335 participants revealed that preference for surgical problems (OR = 7.6; p < 0.001), male gender (OR = 2.77; p = 0.04), high-income expectations (OR = 2.28; p = 0.01), and secondary care (OR = 1.78; p = 0.01) favored surgical over clinical specialties. Residency compliance with national rules (OR = 0.63; p = 0.03), preference for solo practice (OR = 0.61; p = 0.01), work-life balance (OR = 0.59; p < 0.001), tertiary care (OR = 0.54; p = 0.01), and preference for clinical problems (OR = 0.39; p < 0.001) favored clinical over surgical specialties. Male gender (OR = 3.26; p = 0.01) and preference for surgical problems (OR = 2.69; p < 0.001) increased the likelihood of choosing supporting over clinical specialties. Conclusions. Key predictors of specialty choice include gender, problem type, income expectations, work-life balance, residency rule compliance, and type of care within the healthcare system.