Analysis of Factors Affecting Fiscal Revenue in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region

Based on the fiscal revenue data and related economic indicators of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from 1994 to 2022, this paper explores the main influencing factors of fiscal revenue in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The first step is to test the correlation and multicollinearity between the variables. According to the test results, there is a strong multicollinearity among the independent variables. Therefore, the variables need to be screened. Ridge regression, lasso regression and adaptive lasso regression are used for variable selection in this paper. The three models are then evaluated and it is concluded that the lasso regression model provides the best fit. According to the lasso model, the factors that have a more pronounced impact on fiscal revenue are: tax revenue, total retail sales of consumer goods, education expenditure and the number of college graduates. Finally, relevant suggestions are made for the selected key factors to increase Guangxi's fiscal revenue.