An integrated framework for habitat restoration in fire-prone areas. Part 2 – fire hazard assessment of the different land management scenarios

Background Climate change has increased the occurrence of fire-prone weather and extreme weather events in Europe. Improving resilience of forests to reduce fire hazard has become an imperative challenge to tackle. Aims This study aims to incorporate extreme fire events from future climate projections in developing forest planning and land management scenarios, evaluating fire risk mitigation potential. Methods Using the wildfire–atmosphere coupled modelling system WRF-SFIRE, land management scenarios for the Lombada Forest Intervention Region (ILMA) in northeast Portugal were assessed under a business-as-usual future climate scenario. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) was used as a predictor of fire danger to select two fire events. Results Agricultural areas can function as barrier for wildfire conditions under cooler weather. Management of the existing pine forest yielded a reduction in fire spread speed and intensity, namely in lower wind speed regimes, significantly improving suppressive capabilities. Conclusions Fuel treatment of maritime pine performed best in reducing fire spread rate, intensity and improving suppression capability. Replacing agricultural areas with oak-based land cover can promote higher fire intensity and spread rates in the younger stanges or if left unmanaged. Implications This framework can be used to provide additional tools for forest management across different landscapes reducing fire hazard and vulnerability and improving forest resilience, under climate change.