Business-as-usual trends will largely miss 2030 global conservation targets
To address climate change and global biodiversity loss, the world must hit three important international conservation targets by 2030: protect 30% of terrestrial and marine areas, halt and reverse forest loss, and restore 350 Mha of degraded and deforested landscapes. Here, we (1) provide estimates of the gaps between these globally agreed targets and business-as-usual trends; (2) identify examples of rapid past trend-shifts towards achieving the targets; and (3) link these past trend-shifts to different levers. Our results suggest that under a business-as-usual scenario, the world will fail to achieve all three targets. However, trend-shifts that rapidly "bend the curve" have happened in the past and these should therefore be fostered. These trend-shifts are linked to transformative change levers that include environmental governance, economic factors, values, and knowledge. Further research on trend-shifts, as well as bold action on underlying levers, is urgently needed to meet 2030 global conservation targets.
Authors
- Paul J. Ferraro (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4777-5108)
- Unai Pascual (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5696-236X)
- James M. Bullock (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0529-4020)
- Ignacio Palomo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4573-5989)
- Roldán Muradian (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5995-6483)
- Manuel Arboledas
- Sandra Lavorel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7300-2811)
- Enora Bruley (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3416-1868)
- Alberto González‐García (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1969-3818)
- Erik Gómez-Baggethun
Institutions
- Institut polytechnique de Grenoble (FR)
- Ikerbasque (ES)
- University of Bern (CH)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- Universidade Federal Fluminense (BR)
- Universidad de Jaén (ES)
- Johns Hopkins Medicine (US)
- Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR)
- Basque Centre for Climate Change (ES)
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB)
- Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (FR)
- Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine (FR)
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NO)
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR)
- Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NO)
- University of Baltimore (US)
- Université Grenoble Alpes (FR)
Publication Details
- Journal
- AMBIO
- Published
- 2024-11-07
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02085-6
- Citations
- 6
- Primary Topic
- Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 1.70
Funders
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche
- Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación
- Agencia Estatal de Investigación