Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Prediction of Habitat Quality Based on Land Use and Cover Change in Jiangsu, China

Analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of urban land use and habitat quality is crucial for the sustainable development of urban ecological environments. This study utilizes the land use data of Jiangsu Province for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020, applying the FLUS model to investigate the driving force behind land expansion and to simulate a prediction for the land use of 2030. By integrating the InVEST model and landscape pattern indices, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of habitat quality in Jiangsu Province and uses geographical detector analysis to examine the synergistic effects of influencing factors. The results indicate that, from 2000 to 2020, habitat degradation in Jiangsu Province progressively increased, with the spatial distribution of degradation levels showing a gradual change. Under the ecological protection scenario in 2030, habitat fragmentation was alleviated. Conversely, under the economic development scenario, habitat quality further deteriorated, resulting in the largest area of low-quality regions. Minimal changes occurred under the natural development scenario. (2) The landscape indices in Jiangsu Province experienced significant changes from 2000 to 2020. The continuous expansion of urban land into other land use types led to a trend of fragmentation, with a clear increasing trend in dispersion, sprawl, and Shannon’s diversity index, accompanied by a decrease in cohesion. (3) The dominant interacting factors affecting habitat quality were combinations of socioeconomic factors with other factors, indicating that the economy largely determines the spatial distribution pattern of habitat quality. The findings of this study provide optimization strategies for future spatial planning of land use types in Jiangsu Province and offer references for habitat quality restoration efforts in the region.