Bayesian Method of Radar Classification of Dangerous Weather Phenomena for Industrial and Agricultural Facilities in the Territory of the Russian Federation

Dangerous weather conditions for various sectors of the economy include heavy rainfalls, thunderstorms, and hail that occur in cumulonimbus clouds. In the current weather radars criteria of classification of origin seat of rainfalls, thunderstorms, and hail are formed separately for each phenomenon. Moreover, these criteria are only based on data on the altitude distribution of atmospheric radar reflectivity, air temperature, and have obvious shortcomings (defect). Thus, it is necessary to develop a unified method for classifying dangerous weather phenomena of cumulonimbus clouds in weather radars, which will improve the reliability of the weather phenomena classification. The set of criteria for classifying dangerous weather phenomena in weather radars fundamental defect include: the absence of information on atmospheric turbulence in the classification features and the use of its own criterion for each phenomenon. It is obvious that the criteria for classification of dangerous weather phenomena should be optimized in the following areas: the using data on the reflectivity maximum values distribution by altitude together with atmospheric turbulence in the classification criteria; the classification should be based on a single selected method for distinguishing statistical hypotheses, which is implemented in the article. The selected single method for distinguishing statistical hypotheses and the introduction of information on atmospheric turbulence into the criteria for classification of dangerous weather phenomena associated with cumulonimbus clouds will improve the justification and reliability of the classification of weather phenomena in meteorological radars.