Building Stock and Emission Models for Jakarta

• Jakarta’s building sector has grown steadily, with a projected floor stock of 268 km 2 by 2050, up from 167 km 2 in 2010. • Operational emissions in Jakarta are more significant than embodied emissions, with landed houses being the primary contributors to both types. • The ministerial regulation on green building has successfully avoided building emission increases; however, to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, ongoing regulatory advancements coupled with carbon offset project initiatives are essential. Understanding urban-scale building emissions is crucial for achieving net-zero targets. This study examined embodied and operational emissions in Jakarta from 2010 to 2022 using the bottom-up Building Stock Model (BSM) and analyzed building stocks across seven categories: apartments, offices, malls, hotels, education facilities, hospitals, and landed houses. Carbon factors for construction materials, fuels, electricity, and cooking gas, along with occupancy rates, were included in the emissions calculations. The findings reveal consistent growth in apartments, malls, and offices, with operational emissions significantly decreasing after the 2015 green building regulations. Despite a declining share in Jakarta’s building stock, landed houses still account for over 40% of embodied and nearly 75% of operational emissions. With around 80% of the population preferring to live in landed houses, their impact on emissions remains substantial. In 2010, Jakarta’s building floor stock was 167 km 2 . Projections using simple linear regression suggest it could reach 268 km 2 by 2050. Emission forecasts using the Prophet Forecasting Model (PFM) suggest that by 2050, building emissions could return to 2010 levels if stricter regulations are consistently enforced. The study underscores the necessity for continuous regulatory advancements and carbon offset initiatives to achieve net-zero emissions.