Land use/land cover forecast and urban sprawl analysis in a Brazilian city in the Atlantic Forest Biome

Abstract. Urban sprawl, a consequence of urban growth, profoundly impacts land use/land cover, particularly in regions like the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, as this Biome hosts most of the Brazilian population and is recognized as a global biodiversity hotspot. This study uses geospatial techniques, the Cellular Automata model, and structural landscape metrics to simulate future urban land use changes for 2050. The simulation suggests a significant increase in urban areas by 2050, changing from 32.1% in 2020 to nearly 43% by 2050, mainly encroaching upon agricultural lands. Conversely, forest fragments are projected to decline (lost 3% of areas), and the connectivity analysis highlighted the loss along the rivers, emphasizing the need for proactive conservation strategies. Preserving periurban agriculture is vital for food security and sustainable development, while innovative management of riparian ecosystems enhances urban biodiversity and citizen well-being. Sustainable urban planning and conservation efforts are imperative to mitigate the adverse effects of urban sprawl and foster resilient cities. This research provides crucial insights for decision-makers aiming to balance urban development with environmental preservation in the face of rapid urbanization.