Resource supply and demand model of military settlements in the cold weapon era: case of Zhenbao Town, Ming Great Wall

Abstract As an important military defense project in Chinese history, the Ming Dynasty Great Wall and its associated military settlements played a crucial role in maintaining border security. A systematic analysis of how military settlements allocated resources based on external threats and geo-strategic needs is essential to understanding their settlements defense systems. However, this aspect has been relatively under-explored in existing research. Therefore, a resource allocation assessment model for Great Wall military settlements during the Cold Weapon era is established to facilitate a more scientific analysis and quantitative assessment of Military Defense Capabilities(MDC) and Military Requirements(MR). This study employs a combined Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) approach to determine the weight of each indicator for both military defense capability and military requirement. Spatial clustering using K-means is conducted to visualize the distribution of these strengths and weaknesses. An Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model links military requirements with defense capabilities, assessing the relationship between settlement locations and historical battle sites. Residual analysis is utilized to identify areas of resource over-allocation or under-allocation. The study reveals that the regional differences in military defense capabilities and requirements within the Zhenbao Town area during the Ming Dynasty correspond closely with the locations of frequent conflicts. This finding suggests that the distribution of defensive capabilities were strengthened in areas with challenging terrain, while the effectiveness and allocation of defense capabilities were determined by logistical support and transportation conditions. This study enhances our understanding of historical military strategies from a historical geography perspective and offers innovative insights for analyzing Great Wall settlement, moving beyond mere sensory intuition and historical experience.