Quantification of streamflow response to climate change and human activities within upstream mountainous areas of the Daqing River Basin, Northern China

The Daqinghe River Basin is located in the North China Plain. In recent years, however, climate warming, drying, and intense human activities have led to declining ecosystem functions and shrinking wetlands in the region. Understanding streamflow changes in the upstream mountainous areas of the Daqinghe River Basin in this changing environment and identifying the driving factors can provide a scientific basis for water resources management and optimization in these areas. This study focuses on the Beihedian River watershed, the Xidayang Reservoir watershed, and the Wangkuai Reservoir watershed in the upstream mountainous areas of the Daqinghe River. It is based on hydro-meteorological data collected between 1963 and 2019. The methods used in the study include the linear tendency estimation method, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test, the elasticity coefficient method, and hydrological simulation methods. The results of this study suggest that the streamflow, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) in the three watersheds showed an overall decreasing trend. The minimum precipitation decrease rate ranged from −1.09 to −0.55 mm/a, and the minimum streamflow decreasing rate at the Beihedian Hydrological Station was −1.32 mm/a, with a minimum range of 0–176.03 mm. Change-point analysis revealed that the streamflow in the Beihedian River and Xidayang Reservoir watersheds experienced a significant change point around 1999, with a significant level of α=0.05. As for the Wangkuai Reservoir watershed, a significant change point was observed around 1980, which is likely attributable to land system reforms and protective forest projects. The attribution analysis which combined both climate change and human activities using the elasticity coefficient method and hydrological simulation methods indicated that climate change contributed an average of 32.93%, 34.50%, and 35.12% to the reduction in streamflow in the three watersheds, respectively. Human activities accounted for an average contribution of 67.07%, 65.50%, and 64.88%, respectively. Water conservancy projects, afforestation, and other human activities were identified as the primary factors contributing to streamflow decreases.