Changing Rainfall Patterns in the Northeastern South Kivu Region, Democratic Republic of the Congo: A Detailed Analysis Using CHIRPS Rainfall Data (1981–2023)

Abstract Understanding changes in rainfall patterns is vital for effective water resource management and agricultural planning in climate-sensitive regions. In Northeastern South Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo, limited knowledge of rainfall dynamics poses challenges for local climate assessments. This study analyzed rainfall patterns using the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset from 1981 to 2023 to fill this knowledge gap. The findings revealed significant spatial and temporal changes in rainfall across the regions of Kabare, Bukavu, Kalehe, and Idjwi. Mean annual rainfall ranged from 1136.92 mm to 2048.85 mm, with coefficients of variation between 8.23% and 8.45%. Monthly rainfall fluctuations were substantial, ranging from 16 to 56.35%. Standardized rainfall anomalies indicated a shift from predominantly wet conditions in the 1980s to drier conditions in later decades, with over half the years from 1990 to 2023 recording below-average rainfall. Mann-Kendall trend analysis, supported by Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), confirmed significant decreases in annual rainfall, with rates between − 3.53 to -5.72 mm/year. Additionally, rainfall intensity indices highlighted a decline in total annual precipitation, suggested fewer extreme events. Spatial variability was observed, with regions like Kalehe and Bukavu showed higher values for indices such as R95P and RX1day compared to Kabare and Idjwi. These results underscored the urgent need for adaptive strategies to mitigate water scarcity and manage changing rainfall patterns in the region.