Monitoring and Evaluation of Coastal Ecological Carrying Capacity in the Context of Sustainable Development: A Case Study of Shandong Province

The research on coastal ecological carrying capacity holds great significance for the sustainable development of coastal areas and is a focal point of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study coupled multi-source data and ecological analysis models to construct a multi-level evaluation system and analysis method for the coastal ecological carrying capacity of Shandong Province so as to realize the dynamic monitoring and evaluation of the coastal ecological carrying capacity of Shandong Province from 2010 to 2020. The results indicated: (1) The ecological carrying capacity of the coastal zone in Shandong Province showed a “U”-shaped development trend, with 2016 being a turning point. (2) The economic development–social support system gradually became the main force driving the overall improvement of coastal ecological carrying capacity. (3) The system coupling coordination degree of ecological carrying capacity in the coastal areas of Shandong Province showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with a high level of internal coupling coordination of carrying capacity. (4) Per capita GDP, environmental protection investment, per capita water resources, and other indicators were the main factors driving the changes in the ecological carrying capacity of the coastal zone. This study aims to provide methodological reference and data support for coastal ecosystem monitoring, assessment, and climate change response.