The Effect of Food Price Stabilization on Inflation in West Nusa Tenggara 2019-2023

One of the primary contributors to the inflation rate in West Nusa Tenggara Province is the fluctuation of prices for food commodities. The objective of this study is to examine the extent to which fluctuations in food commodity prices, including those of rice, red chili, and shallots, contribute to inflationary trends in West Nusa Tenggara. The data used is monthly data on inflation and food commodity prices from 2019-2023 obtained from BPS (Central Bureau of Statistics), DKP (Food Security Agency), and the Agriculture Office of West Nusa Tenggara Province. The analysis method used is vector autoregression (VAR), which includes stationarity test, VAR stability test, optimal lag test, cointegration test, VAR estimation, impulse response function (IRF), and variance decomposition. The results of this study indicate that in the short term premium rice prices, curly red chili prices, and shallots do not affect inflation. Conversely, in the long run, the variable price of shallots does not affect inflation, while the variable price of premium rice and curly red chili prices exert an influence on inflationary pressures in West Nusa Tenggara Province. The Variance Decomposition Test indicates that the price of curly red chili contributes 37.24 percent to inflation in the fifth period, while premium rice has an effect of 8.66 percent on inflation in the second period and shallots have an effect of 7.93 percent on inflation in the fifth period.