Set pair analysis and system dynamics coupling approach for structure simulation and variation trend evaluation of water resources spatial equilibrium system

Abstract The implement of water resources spatial equilibrium (WRSE) schemes is fundamental task of integrated water resources management in China, in which, the evaluation and simulation analysis of WRSE system is of great concern for understanding the overall variation and feedback characteristics of WRSE system. Therefore, we utilized the ordered degree, entropy and connection number coupling model to evaluate the variation of WRSE system, and also employed system dynamics (SD) and scenario simulation integrated method to reveal the feedback characteristics between different equilibrium variables and subsystems, and thus the set pair analysis‐SD based approach for structure simulation and variation trend evaluation of WRSE system was constructed. The application results in Anhui province, China demonstrated that, the overall variation of provincial spatial equilibrium situation of WRSE system presented obvious improving trend, 2009–2019, the index of ordered degree and connection number entropy in Hefei, increased from the minimum of 0.6434 (Grade 3, unequilibrium) to maximum of 0.9985 (Grade 1, equilibrium). Moreover, the future variation of WRSE system will display stable improving trend during 2020 to 2029, in which, annual water resources availability and water resources utilization efficiency will have significant influence on WRSE system. And the research findings can be favorable to formulate water resources development and utilization strategies.