Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry

Abstract An advance has been made towards a method for forecasting earthquakes several months before they occur. The method relies on changes of groundwater chemistry as earthquake precursors. In a study published in 2014, we showed that changes of groundwater chemistry occurred prior to and were associated with two earthquakes of magnitude 5 and higher, which affected northern Iceland in 2012 and 2013. Here we test the hypothesis that similar or larger earthquakes could have been forecast in the following decade (i.e. 2014–2023) based on our published findings. We found that we could have forecast one of the three greater than magnitude 5 earthquakes that occurred. Noting that changes of groundwater chemistry were oscillatory, we infer expansion and contraction of the groundwater source region caused by coupled crustal dilation and fracture mineralisation associated with the stress build-up before earthquakes. We conclude by proposing how our approach could be implemented elsewhere.

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Publication Details

Journal
Communications Earth & Environment
Published
2024-11-06
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01852-3
Citations
7
Primary Topic
Earthquake Detection and Analysis
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
3.74
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article

Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry

N. S. Keller, Halldór Geirsson, Margareta Andrén, Carl‐Magnus Mörth et al.
7 citations
Communications Earth & Environment
Earthquake Detection and Analysis
3.74
article

Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry

N. S. Keller, Halldór Geirsson, Margareta Andrén, Carl‐Magnus Mörth, Jóhann Gunnarsson‐Robin, Erik Sturkell, Niklas Wästeby, Andri Stefánsson, Sigurjón Jónsson, Elin Tollefsen, Gabrielle Stockmann, Ingrid Skelton Kockum, Hreinn Hjartarson, Alasdair Skelton, Lillemor Claesson Liljedahl
article en
7 citations

Abstract

Abstract An advance has been made towards a method for forecasting earthquakes several months before they occur. The method relies on changes of groundwater chemistry as earthquake precursors. In a study published in 2014, we showed that changes of groundwater chemistry occurred prior to and were associated with two earthquakes of magnitude 5 and higher, which affected northern Iceland in 2012 and 2013. Here we test the hypothesis that similar or larger earthquakes could have been forecast in the following decade (i.e. 2014–2023) based on our published findings. We found that we could have forecast one of the three greater than magnitude 5 earthquakes that occurred. Noting that changes of groundwater chemistry were oscillatory, we infer expansion and contraction of the groundwater source region caused by coupled crustal dilation and fracture mineralisation associated with the stress build-up before earthquakes. We conclude by proposing how our approach could be implemented elsewhere.

Communications Earth & EnvironmentVol. 5(1)
Stockholm University (SE), University of Iceland (IS), Landsvirkjun (Iceland) (IS), Karolinska Institutet (SE), Environment Agency of Iceland (IS), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (SA), University of Gothenburg (SE)
Openalex Percentile: Top 7%
Earthquake Detection and Analysis
3.74
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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