Dominant HPAIV H5N1 genotypes of Germany 2021/2022 are linked to high virulence in Pekin ducklings

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) of H5 clade 2.3.4.4b pose an ongoing threat worldwide. It remains unclear whether this panzootic situation would favor low virulent phenotypes expected by the 'avirulence hypothesis' of viral evolution. Assessing virulence in Pekin ducklings in an intramuscular infection model revealed that the two genotypes that dominated the epidemiological situation in Germany during the period 2021 and 2022 (EU-RL:CH and EU-RL:AB) were of high virulence. In contrast, rare genotypes were of intermediate virulence. The genetic constellation of these reassortants pointed to an important role of the viral polymerase complex (RdRP), particularly the PB1 genome segment, in shaping virulence in ducklings. Occulo-nasal infection of ducklings confirmed the phenotypes for two representative viruses and indicated a more efficient replication for the high virulence strain. These observations would be in line with the 'virulence-transmission trade-off' model for describing HPAIV epidemiology in wild birds in Germany.