Technology and material-oriented strategies can reduce lead industry carbon emissions in China

Achieving carbon neutrality in the lead industry requires both technological decarbonization and comprehensive reduction of surplus lead to mitigate environmental risks from stacking. A successful decarbonization pathway requires integrating material-oriented and technology-oriented factors synergistically. In this study, a comprehensive dynamic model was developed to encompass emissions of greenhouse gases throughout various processes and levels of lead redundancy across different scenarios. The results show that China’s cumulative lead consumption amounts to 190.24 million tonnes, with greenhouse gases emissions reach 250.96 million tonnes CO2-equivalent between 2021 and 2060. Strategies focused on material-oriented approaches to achieve an earlier carbon peak can yield short-term success, while a technology-oriented strategy demonstrates superior long-term optimization. In order to achieve synergistic outcomes in reducing pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, it is imperative to prioritize short-term improvements in recycling rates and long-term technological advancements. Additionally, exploring new applications for surplus lead should also be pursued. A combination of short-term recycling enhancements and long-term technological advancements can significantly reduce carbon emissions in the Chinese lead industry, according to dynamic modelling of past and future lead industry trends.